How to Lose an Election

"I don't belong to any organized political party," Will Rogers was reputed to have said. "I'm a Democrat."

It looked so good for us. Tired of seven years of Bush-Cheney rule, most Americans want change. They're sick of five years of war in Iraq, and worried about the economy. All seemed right in the world for a change in the White House, and we had just the Democrat for the job.

Even better, we had two Democrats, one who could become the first woman and the other the first African-American to ever hold the office. The woman was tough, experienced, and married to a popular former president, with one of the best political machines in history at her disposal. Her opponent was young, energetic, and full of charisma, with a promise of change for all those left behind by the Great American Oil Rush. And the other side nominated a 71 year-old man who even his party doesn't support, and who looks like someone you'd see driving too slowly on the highway.

How could we lose? Americans were rushing to the polls in each state's primary -- with short lines for the Republicans, and long lines for the Democrats. The race for the nomination became the top news story since early February, and all America stood watch to see who would surge ahead. We were for healthcare, better schools, an end to the war, while they were for keeping the troops right where they are, tax breaks for the rich, and drilling in Alaskan wildlife reserves.

But alas, the party that brought us John Kerry, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale has found a way to lose this one as well. First it was the red-faced sniping between Clinton and Obama supporters, who were convinced that pouring on the negatives would boost their candidate. Then, it was the fiascos in stereo that were the Florida and Michigan primaries, where the party first kicked both states out of the process, then sought a way to get them back in. After all was said and done, both Michigan and Florida responded, "Thanks, but no thanks."

Now here we are, with Obama holding a lead of about 150 pledged delegates over Clinton. It is five weeks before the Pennsylvania primary, where we have to wait to watch the voters of Pennsylvania decide. . . absolutely nothing. Then, it will be another two weeks until the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, which will decide. . . absolutely nothing. In fact, we will go through the entire fifty states, plus Guam and Puerto Rico and neither side will end up with the 2024 votes needed to win the nomination.

And that brings us to the convention in Denver. That convention will be exciting, but it will be all about superdelegates, and wondering whom each is going to vote for. And after all the time we spent listening to the candidates, watching debates, traveling to caucuses or standing in line at primaries, it will be about 800 party bigwigs who will decide whom we nominate. Hillary will likely need more votes than Obama, but she has more connections, and let's be honest, can play the game better. Obama will likely have the most popular votes, most states, and most delegates, and those superdelegates that base their decision on those factors will side with him.

Coming out of the convention, we will finally have a candidate. But we will have a split party, a whole bunch of disenfranchised rank and file voters, and only two months to run for president. That's right. Did I mention that the convention is in late August and the election is in early November? Subtract a week for the GOP convention in September, when all eyes will turn to Minneapolis and what the Republicans have to say. That leaves about seven or eight weeks to raise money, run ads, and state our case to the American people.

Meanwhile, John McCain is already doing exactly that. He is in a debate with no opponent, raising money hand over fist, and getting a free pass from the media. He is shaking hands with the president, making a trip to Iraq to meet with generals and foreign leaders, and resting his tired old bones for the short campaign ahead. The only bad day that he's had since Super Tuesday was the day that a Democrat had to explain to him that Iranians were not training al Qaeda.

This is how we manage to lose elections, people. It's not that we're being outspent. It's not that America loves Jesus. It's not even that white guys poll better than non-whites or even non-guys. It's that we can't get our act together enough to give a candidate a fighting chance against the other side. Between Howard Dean's er, leadership, and the campaigns' scorched earth mentalities, and the ridiculous rules for the process, we're going to go into the general election at a serious disadvantage that WE PUT OURSELVES IN. It's as if we were the Patriots taking on the Giants, favored by two touchdowns, and we decided to tie our own shoes together.

So, Howard, if you're out there, here's what you do. Send a letter to all of the superdelegates and tell them two things. First tell them that this is the last time they will be superdelegates. Next time around, they will have one vote in their own precinct, just like everyone else. And second, tell them that they'd better be ready to cast their vote on the day after the final primary, which is sometime in June. Once the primaries are over, they will have 24 hours to vote. No need to book an airline ticket. An email will be fine. Or the Internet. I just picked 63 basketball games over the Internet in about two minutes, so they should be able to pick one president in about the same time.

Then, maybe either Clinton or Obama can stop running for the chance to be the next name in a long line of Democratic losers, and be the first woman or the first African American President.

Why I Voted for Hillary

I just got back from my local polling place. This is the first time in memory that I am able to cast a vote for President that actually matters. Having voted in Texas or Maryland since 1986, I haven't cast many votes in races where the winner isn't known days beforehand.

But up until this morning, I didn't know which way to vote. Both Clinton and Obama are terrific candidates, and would make great presidents. Each has flaws, but I'm confident that each would put their considerable talents to work fixing the problems created by eight years of Bush and Cheney.

I finally decided on Hillary for several reasons. Here are the biggest three:

Healthcare. Both Democrats realize that Americans are hurting when it comes to healthcare. We spend more per capita than any other country, and yet 47 million Americans go without health insurance. Most of those are regular working men and women and their children. But unlike Republicans, who have little interest in fixing the problem, both Clinton and Obama have pretty elaborate plans for reforming the system. Neither plan goes as far as I'd like them to, and both plans have been criticized. Obama's plan would still leave 15 million uninsured, and Clinton's plan would mandate coverage, forcing people to take coverage even if they didn't want to. But both plans would allow health insurance to be portable, would pool private plans and create an alternative Medicare-style public plan. And both would pay for it by repealing the tax breaks that Bush gave to households making more than $250,000 per year.

The difference is not with the plans, but in the person who will have to drive them through Congress and sign them into law. Hillary is passionate about healthcare. It was her most public failure during her husband's administration, and it was one of the first issues she grabbed in this campaign. She knows from experienced the size, strength, and tactics of her opposition, from the entrenched fatcats who are growing rich from the status quo. And she won't rest until we have a plan in place to try to fix the system. It may not be perfect, but it's a far sight better than what we have now.

Iraq. Obama mentions at every opportunity that he was right on Iraq, and Hillary was wrong. But we're past the decision to go to war. We're even past the decision to bring troops home. Both Democrats have made it, and unless "Hundred Years" McCain wins the election, they'll be coming home soon after one of them takes office. But while Obama's wants them out in a year or so, save a few non-combat troops, Hillary knows that it will take much longer. There are more than 140,000 troops over there, but there are also more than 100,000 contractors, and a zillion tanks, troop trucks, planes, jeeps, and pieces of equipment that we have to bring back. To bring everyone and everything back will take time, and a year won't do it. Plus, she's allowing the generals to set the timetable, not the rest of us. As a key member of the Senate Arms Services Committee, she knows what the military needs, and can do. She has made a commitment to ending the war in Iraq, but she isn't about to get into a race to see how fast she can get everybody out. She will take a slow, organized approach, trying not to further destabilize the region. Liberals will be scratching their heads wondering why it is taking so long, but I'd feel much better about this approach.

Republicans. The third reason isn't really an issue. It's more a feeling I get when I examine both of these candidates. Obama is running on two words: change and unity. He wants to change the country by changing Washington. And how will he change Washington? That's where the unity comes in. Democrats are more alike than different, and there is really no need for all of the acrimony and harshness. Obama is clearly uninterested in going to war with Republicans; he wants to lead the whole country. "I don't want to pit Red America against Blue America," he said early in the campaign. "I want to be President of the United States of America."
Contrast that to Hillary Clinton, the Most Hates Women in country clubs and NASCAR events everywhere. She's never going to unite the country. She's never going to get Republicans to work with her. And that's fine with me.
There are two ways to get something done in Washington: compromise or win. And for the first time in a long time, we actually have a chance to win. With a Dem in the White House and solid majorities in the House and Senate, we have a chance to reverse some of the damage of the Bush Era. We have a chance to get some control over the defecit, to take some real action for the environment, and to lower the widening gap between rich and poor. Not to mention healthcare and Iraq. But we don't need a coalition-builder in the White House for that; we need a fighter. We need someone to say, "I heard the jokes. I know what you're thinking. I know that you can't stand my being here. But I'm here now, so deal with it. And maybe in four years, your party will put you here. Unless you're a Mormon, that is."

Only she won't be, of course. She won't be President. Not this year, and probably not ever. Today may be the last real day of her campaign, or maybe the last week, or the last month. But the handwriting is on the wall. Even with the superdelegates, even with 65% of the rest of the pledged delegates, even if they re-run Florida and Michigan, it won't be enough. It won't be enough to overcome the national movement that will lead to the first black man to be nominated for President, and not the first woman. But I'm fine with it. Sort of.

Campaign 2008 - This Whole Script Needs a Re-Write

With March 4th right around the corner, those long-awaited, once thought of as irrelevant state primaries in Texas and Ohio now suddenly seem to actually hold some importance, (especially for the Democrats who want to believe they actually have a nail-biter on their hands.) For the Republicans, that drama is long gone. It's McCain. It's McCain. Pundits across the TV world keep blurbing on and on about how surprising it is that more Republicans aren't pouring out in droves to help decide an already decided outcome. Go figure. You would hope that Democrats are excited about something. They have a legitimate fight on their hands for the first time since someone tried to stop Howard Dean from chanting all 50 states names. But I digress.

There is something missing in this 2008 Presidential campaign, and that is a story line. You've got some decent characters. But the darn plot line is a re-tread. Pick your theme. Us versus them. The establishment versus radical change. War versus peace. Us going after the bad guys or us sitting around hoping they leave us alone. And so on and so on. I have a theory that part of the reason the election this year is such a yawner is because of the Writer's Strike. I think not only did they abandon the TV shows, they quit writing for the candidates, and boy did it show.

But fear not, as I sat trying to find out who won some of the year's Academy Awards, while putting up with one tired political joke after another, I devised the best way to spice up things. We get some of those liberal Hollywood types to make a movie, quickly, and have it out before November.


We take the dullsville candidates of 2008 and replace them with STAR-power. And here is your cast:





Emma Thompson has already played the Hillary clone in the cult classic "Primary Colors" so she is an automatic to lead our cast. Thompson's elegance and soft appeal will come across much better than the real deal, and perhaps take away some of that "head of the PTA" edge that hits everyone in the face whenever Bill's wife speaks to the humble masses.





Then you have to have a spot for Mike Wannabee, er, I mean
Mike Huckabee. Naturally, Kevin Spacey could reprise his role
as the District Attorney from "A Time to Kill". All of those smug, clever quips would come rolling off of his tongue, and the ratings for all things political would automatically soar.
Who knows, since so many of the current candidates seem to be stealing quotes, passages and full speeches as their own, it would be easy for Spacey to throw in a few revised lines from the classic "The Usual Suspects". Imagine Spacey as Huckabee looking into the camera and saying. "Perhaps the greatest trick Hillary ever did was convincing the people that she couldn't win. "

Now, as for the actual Republican nominee, the honorable John McCain, who else to represent the staunch military, defend our nation at all costs, the lovable Colonel Nathan Jessup from one of my favorite Rob Reiner films, "A Few Good Men" Of course, I am talking about Jack Nicholson playing our GOP war hero. The dialogue almost would write itself. If Obama can avoid talking about his policies, or offering any real substance until after he KO's Mrs. Clinton, then an Obama-McCain debate would be priceless. You can already hear our war hero respond: "Son, we live in a world with walls. And those walls need to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have the luxury of knowing things you'll never know. You weep for the hunting down and killing of terrorists and radical Islamic maniacs who want to destroy our nation. You weep for the terrorists and you curse the marines! " I already have chills just thinking about the drama that would be.

And then, of course there is everybody's flavor-of-the-month, the greatest thing since sliced bread, the Democrat momentum magnet, Barack Obama. Now, portraying him is not easy. You need a strong actor, just as good as Barack himself. He has said that he wants Will Smith to play him in a movie. Not so fast. Will Smith is drop dead attractive. He has looks on top of looks. Plus, his best roles have been portraying characters that build up America as it is, and don't want to tear it down and make it the way they see it. Then, I thought about Morgan Freeman, but aside from probably being too old, Morgan had some famous lines from the SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, when he warned Tim Robbins to be careful, because "Hope is a dangerous thing." WHOA. That sentiment is like Bizarro Barack, the complete opposite of his canned speeches about wishing for tomorrow rather than dealing with realities of today. Nope, Morgan is out. Chris Rock is too thin.

And then it came to me. That guy from the old ALIAS television show, Carl Lumbly. I don't really remember the guys character, but I know he was reliable and spoke softly. I can't remember much of his dialogue, so that would be an easy transition to play Obama. He is tall. He is a good guy. He looks like a leader and everyone on ALIAS was always happy when he was around. Yes, Carl Lumbly pick up the phone. Your Oscar awaits.

Auditions for Obama groupies, Clinton gang, and McCain's posse should begin by April 1st. Frank Caliendo can play our current President. I'll see you AT the Movies!

It's Obama

Two things happened in the most recent string of primaries this week, the Potomac Primaries, as they are called. First was Obama’s winning margin. In Iowa, it was nine percent. In Virginia, Maryland, and DC, the average was 34%. So, not only is Obama winning more states – he has won eight since Super Tuesday – but he’s winning by significant margins, all of which is bad for Hillary.

Second is where the candidates are. Obama is continuing his state-by-state tour, delivering stump speeches every day in whatever state is voting next. Clinton is spending her time and money in Texas and Ohio in an effort to capture those big important states, but this strategy has been described accurately as “Giulian-esque.” I’m not certain if it is a money problem, or a leadership problem, or an energy problem. But it seems to me that when you start ceding states, you are facing the beginning of the end. And I’m afraid that Hillary is, like it or not.

So in a month, the rest of the world will know what you do: that the next president will either be Barack Obama or John McCain. And the campaign will move on to the next stage. Here is what you’ll see:

McCain will finally stop sucking up to conservatives. The race for the nomination is over. It was over on February 6th, when the Mittster decided to suspend his current campaign and to save his money for the 2012 race. There was a period where McCain defended himself against conservatives who claimed that he was no better than a Democrat, and he may have even convinced some. But now is the time to go after independents, Reagan Democrats, and others who make up the middle of the political spectrum. He may not be the ideal conservative, but he certainly will be the MORE conservative candidate in the race. If that’s good enough for the Bush-lovin’, pro-torture, send-the-Mexicans-home types, then he’ll have to go forward without them.

The Republican Attack Machine will start humming. Look for the name “Hussein” to show up on the Fox News ticker over and over again. Look for the “Obama is a Muslim Extremist” email in your box soon. And look for this picture over and over again:

Just remember that this picture exists too:

And finally, look for Obama to be described as “the most liberal member of the Senate.” You may remember that this tag was used successfully against John Kerry in 2004. So, by some strange coincidence, both Kerry and Obama happened to be the most liberal member of the Senate the year before they ran for President, even though both serve with Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is a Socialist. But I’m sure the survey is completely impartial.

Lots of talk about 9/11. The current administration hasn’t helped future Republicans seeking office very much, but they’re doing what they can. One thing they’re doing is choosing this year to try six terror suspects of plotting the 9/11 attacks in a carefully-controlled military tribunal. But don’t worry, you’ll get to hear every frightening detail, all year long. The Bush Administration had more than six years to charge these guys, who were sitting in Guantanamo when they weren’t being waterboarded. But the Bushies know that more 9/11 talk in the press means more GOP votes in the ballot box, so now seems like a good time to get it done.

You will still see lot’s of Hillary – if you are Latino. The one area that Obama still struggles in with Democrats is one group that the Dems were counting on this year: Latin American voters. They make up a larger and larger portion of the electorate, eclipsing blacks in many key states. And with all of the furor over closing borders and criminalizing illegal immigration, Republicans have effectively pushed Latino voters away from the GOP. But in the Democratic primaries, they flocked to Hillary in droves, which suggests that Obama may have trouble keeping them. Look for Hillary and Bill Richardson to be working in these communities to bring up those numbers before November.

Tired of Debates? Good. You won’t see too many more. Hillary and Obama have agreed to two more, which will probably be their final two. There may be a few between McCain and Obama, but don’t expect too many. Neither of these guys like to debate, and Obama especially would rather make speeches before roaring crowds than answer questions on a stage. I for one will be glad to not-see the final one of the season.

From the Left, I’m Joe Benik.

Can I vote for Mitt Huckabee? Please?

Seriously. Consider all of the hoopla leading into Ho Hum Tuesday, what did we actually learn about the GOP? In virtually every state, educated voters on our side of the aisle wisely cast their votes for one of the two more conservative candidates (Romney and Huckabee) than John McCain. The percentage simply don't lie. Were we able to combine the two governor candidates into one super candidate, McCain would have lost Florida.

But the question I have to keep asking myself is why exactly do so many voters of the Republican party not seem to be buying into this war hero from Arizona? Is it because of his voting record? Could it be because in the past month he has been saying things about his opponents that usually spew from the mouths of doom and gloom liberals? In case you weren't listening, or perhaps had fallen asleep, I think McCain's favorite campaign buzz word was "timetables". The Dems have Barrack over there doing his Paul Simon version of "150 ways to CHANGE your country" where he says the word "change" at least 3 times per sentence, and we've got Mr. Timetable.

So, that's why we need to turn to someone from the Sci-Fi Channel to see if there is a way that the heart of the Republican party, the loyal conservatives, can finally get what they really want and need - Candidiate Mitt Huckabee!!

Imagine a guy with all the leadership experience of a governor, a clear and practical understanding of business, the economy, and a heartfelt love for our country! He would have that charismatic communication ability to deliver homilies as inspiring as Barrack and a heck of a lot more invigorating than Hillary. This candidate would also bring the real world realization that we must continue to take the fight to our attackers as opposed to sitting around holding hands, wanting the rest of the world to be our new BFF, and hope that those horrific terrorists just decide to leave us alone. Hillary's spouse tried that sitting around for 2 terms, which was just about long enough to form plans like those from that horrific Sepember.

But it looks like this ideal candidate won't be on this upcoming ballot. I have no doubt that in the days and months to follow, that war hero from Arizona will do whatever it takes to win the heart of his party, the conservative. McCain and his handlers know all too well that assuring the conservative heart is the only way he can win in November. That is, of course, unless he is lucky enough to be running against Bill's wife. That would be the best case scenario for the GOP.

Rush Hates Me, But Republicans Don't

Now that Romney has officially quit the race, the GOP is down to just one player. And conservative talk-show hosts are fuming. Rush is providing blustering, red-faced tirades that make him look like a blubbering volcano about to erupt. And Hannity, Ann Coulter, and wannabe Glenn Beck are all threatening to cast votes for Hillary if McCain is nominated. Well, guys, be careful what you promise, because guess who just lined up the nomination.

I was amazed by the blinding rage that has come from these circles. And why are they angry? Not that McCain is running for President. Not even that he called himself a conservative, which he had been doing for months. No, the ire began when it began to look like McCain would actually win. That Republican voters would take a look at guys with their brand of conservatism -- Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson -- and then pull the cord for McCain over all of them. That's what the Right Wing Chatterboxes can't get over, that after being preached to for nearly twenty years, these voters have the audacity to think for themselves.

What these guys don't understand is that there are Republicans out there, lots of them, who aren't happy with the way things are going. They've stuck with Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld and Gonzales and Rove and Scooter Libby and the Neo-Cons and the secrecy and the incompetence and everything else that they've seen during the Bush years, and they're thinking, "enough." They are still Republicans, many would even call themselves conservatives. They still believe in limited government, low taxes, and strong defense. They still hate the idea of liberals running the show. But they also would like to see the war end someday. They quietly believe in stem-cell research and global warming. They don't believe in torture, and spying on Americans without a warrant. And they are tired of paying a fortune for healthcare, and to fill up their gas tank.

These Republicans aren't traitors to the party. It is the party that has turned on them, by locking down all discourse and turning on anyone who strayed on any issue. It wasn't long ago that Tom DeLay used to pose for pictures with a big smile and a giant hammer. But the hammer wasn't for pummeling Democrats, as many thought. It was for beating down Republicans in Congress who even considered voting against them. Well, you may be able to coerce the vote of a member of Congress, but you can't do the same to millions of Republicans in California and New York.

Fortunately for McCain, the battle is nearly over. Now that he has the nomination, he no longer has to suck up to conservatives. His speech today before the booing CPAC audience is the final apology that he'll have to make. Starting tomorrow, he'll go back to running against Democrats, and the pundits can go back to their favorite activity, attacking Clinton and Obama. And all will be right with the world again.

But I hope that McCain will remember those who screamed so passionately against his nomination, with the same long memory that they had for him. And I hope that someday they will have to explain why they turned on him.

Say Goodnight, Mitt

Mitt, it was nice knowing you. Last week, you were wondering like most other Republicans how in the world that codger McCain ever became the front-runner for the GOP Nomination. After all, you won the Michigan primary. You had the most money in the bank, the best head of hair, the Olympic resume, and the outside-Washington message that people are eating up right now. How is this doddering old fool from Arizona getting the best of me, you must have wondered. He's not even a conservative, for gosh sake.

Well, Super Tuesday was going to change that. With some help from a long and blusteringly vocal line of conservative talk-show hosts, you were going to show McCain how you True Believers play hardball. You were going to start with a win in Massachusetts, and ride this wave of right-wing animosity all the way to Utah. And when you were done, you'd be back on top, right where God wants you.

Well, some Super Tuesdays don't turn out like we plan. Sometimes Super Tuesday turns into Bummer Tuesday. Sure, you won Massachusetts and Utah, and you picked up Minnesota, Montana and Colorado. But it turns out that those states were pretty much it. Somehow, McCain won the three biggest states in the race: New York, Illinois, and California. He also won seven other states, in addition to the Big Three.

And then there is Huckabee. That guy just doesn't seem to know his place. He doesn't understand that you can't run without millions in the bank. He doesn't know that you can't run a campaign based on appealing to evangelicals. Although he may be pretty conservative too, he doesn't know when to step aside and let you have all of the anti-McCain votes. And now, it turns out that he's beaten you in West Virginia, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Missouri. How are you supposed to win the South when the Southerner stays in the race?

And now, people are suggesting that maybe it is time for you to hang 'em up. To use your deep pockets to buy another company instead of throwing it all away on a silly pipe dream of becoming Rush Limbaugh's Great White Hope. And they may be right. It may very well be a McCain-Huckabee ticket, and there may be nothing that you can do or buy that will change that. But facing reality is not your strong suit. After all, you're a conservative.