Two things happened in the most recent string of primaries this week, the Potomac Primaries, as they are called. First was Obama’s winning margin. In Iowa, it was nine percent. In Virginia, Maryland, and DC, the average was 34%. So, not only is Obama winning more states – he has won eight since Super Tuesday – but he’s winning by significant margins, all of which is bad for Hillary.
Second is where the candidates are. Obama is continuing his state-by-state tour, delivering stump speeches every day in whatever state is voting next. Clinton is spending her time and money in Texas and Ohio in an effort to capture those big important states, but this strategy has been described accurately as “Giulian-esque.” I’m not certain if it is a money problem, or a leadership problem, or an energy problem. But it seems to me that when you start ceding states, you are facing the beginning of the end. And I’m afraid that Hillary is, like it or not.
So in a month, the rest of the world will know what you do: that the next president will either be Barack Obama or John McCain. And the campaign will move on to the next stage. Here is what you’ll see:
McCain will finally stop sucking up to conservatives. The race for the nomination is over. It was over on February 6th, when the Mittster decided to suspend his current campaign and to save his money for the 2012 race. There was a period where McCain defended himself against conservatives who claimed that he was no better than a Democrat, and he may have even convinced some. But now is the time to go after independents, Reagan Democrats, and others who make up the middle of the political spectrum. He may not be the ideal conservative, but he certainly will be the MORE conservative candidate in the race. If that’s good enough for the Bush-lovin’, pro-torture, send-the-Mexicans-home types, then he’ll have to go forward without them.
The Republican Attack Machine will start humming. Look for the name “Hussein” to show up on the Fox News ticker over and over again. Look for the “Obama is a Muslim Extremist” email in your box soon. And look for this picture over and over again:
Second is where the candidates are. Obama is continuing his state-by-state tour, delivering stump speeches every day in whatever state is voting next. Clinton is spending her time and money in Texas and Ohio in an effort to capture those big important states, but this strategy has been described accurately as “Giulian-esque.” I’m not certain if it is a money problem, or a leadership problem, or an energy problem. But it seems to me that when you start ceding states, you are facing the beginning of the end. And I’m afraid that Hillary is, like it or not.
So in a month, the rest of the world will know what you do: that the next president will either be Barack Obama or John McCain. And the campaign will move on to the next stage. Here is what you’ll see:
McCain will finally stop sucking up to conservatives. The race for the nomination is over. It was over on February 6th, when the Mittster decided to suspend his current campaign and to save his money for the 2012 race. There was a period where McCain defended himself against conservatives who claimed that he was no better than a Democrat, and he may have even convinced some. But now is the time to go after independents, Reagan Democrats, and others who make up the middle of the political spectrum. He may not be the ideal conservative, but he certainly will be the MORE conservative candidate in the race. If that’s good enough for the Bush-lovin’, pro-torture, send-the-Mexicans-home types, then he’ll have to go forward without them.
The Republican Attack Machine will start humming. Look for the name “Hussein” to show up on the Fox News ticker over and over again. Look for the “Obama is a Muslim Extremist” email in your box soon. And look for this picture over and over again:
Just remember that this picture exists too:
And finally, look for Obama to be described as “the most liberal member of the Senate.” You may remember that this tag was used successfully against John Kerry in 2004. So, by some strange coincidence, both Kerry and Obama happened to be the most liberal member of the Senate the year before they ran for President, even though both serve with Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is a Socialist. But I’m sure the survey is completely impartial.
Lots of talk about 9/11. The current administration hasn’t helped future Republicans seeking office very much, but they’re doing what they can. One thing they’re doing is choosing this year to try six terror suspects of plotting the 9/11 attacks in a carefully-controlled military tribunal. But don’t worry, you’ll get to hear every frightening detail, all year long. The Bush Administration had more than six years to charge these guys, who were sitting in Guantanamo when they weren’t being waterboarded. But the Bushies know that more 9/11 talk in the press means more GOP votes in the ballot box, so now seems like a good time to get it done.
You will still see lot’s of Hillary – if you are Latino. The one area that Obama still struggles in with Democrats is one group that the Dems were counting on this year: Latin American voters. They make up a larger and larger portion of the electorate, eclipsing blacks in many key states. And with all of the furor over closing borders and criminalizing illegal immigration, Republicans have effectively pushed Latino voters away from the GOP. But in the Democratic primaries, they flocked to Hillary in droves, which suggests that Obama may have trouble keeping them. Look for Hillary and Bill Richardson to be working in these communities to bring up those numbers before November.
Tired of Debates? Good. You won’t see too many more. Hillary and Obama have agreed to two more, which will probably be their final two. There may be a few between McCain and Obama, but don’t expect too many. Neither of these guys like to debate, and Obama especially would rather make speeches before roaring crowds than answer questions on a stage. I for one will be glad to not-see the final one of the season.
From the Left, I’m Joe Benik.
Lots of talk about 9/11. The current administration hasn’t helped future Republicans seeking office very much, but they’re doing what they can. One thing they’re doing is choosing this year to try six terror suspects of plotting the 9/11 attacks in a carefully-controlled military tribunal. But don’t worry, you’ll get to hear every frightening detail, all year long. The Bush Administration had more than six years to charge these guys, who were sitting in Guantanamo when they weren’t being waterboarded. But the Bushies know that more 9/11 talk in the press means more GOP votes in the ballot box, so now seems like a good time to get it done.
You will still see lot’s of Hillary – if you are Latino. The one area that Obama still struggles in with Democrats is one group that the Dems were counting on this year: Latin American voters. They make up a larger and larger portion of the electorate, eclipsing blacks in many key states. And with all of the furor over closing borders and criminalizing illegal immigration, Republicans have effectively pushed Latino voters away from the GOP. But in the Democratic primaries, they flocked to Hillary in droves, which suggests that Obama may have trouble keeping them. Look for Hillary and Bill Richardson to be working in these communities to bring up those numbers before November.
Tired of Debates? Good. You won’t see too many more. Hillary and Obama have agreed to two more, which will probably be their final two. There may be a few between McCain and Obama, but don’t expect too many. Neither of these guys like to debate, and Obama especially would rather make speeches before roaring crowds than answer questions on a stage. I for one will be glad to not-see the final one of the season.
From the Left, I’m Joe Benik.
1 comment:
You are correct, McCain will focus more of his time to moderates than her will to conservatives. In addition, once the Democrats decide on who they like more in the popularity contest (because face it, they are the exact same person regarding the issues) and a clear front-runner is set he (or she) will pull more to the right to appeal more to moderates as well. It happens every election.
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